世界钢铁协会数据管理主管Adam Szewczyk表示，全球钢铁行业已达到最新的拐点，之后很可能会出现长期的缓慢增长。

The global steel industry has reached its latest inflection point which is likely to befollowed by a prolonged period of slow growth, according to worldsteel data management head Adam Szewczyk.

Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）获悉，Szewczyk本周在杜塞尔多夫举行的Irepas大会上表示，随着西方自由主义的退却，全球经济正面临结构性挑战和全球化放缓。自2018年末以来，全球经济出现周期性下滑，中美贸易紧张局势、英国脱欧以及中东地缘政治冲突都打击了投资者信心。贸易紧张局势正在阻碍全球价值链的发展，导致贸易活动放缓。

The global economy is experiencing structural challenges and a slowdown in globalisation,with western liberalism in retreat. There has been a cyclical downturn since late 2018, with US-China trade tensions, Brexit, and geopolitical conflict in the Middle East all dampening investor confidence. Trade tension is hampering global value chains, resulting in slowing trade activity, Szewczyk said at this week’s Irepas meeting in Düsseldorf attended by Kallanish.

德国制造业陷入衰退，汽车行业收缩，而美国长达10年的扩张周期（上世纪50年代以来最长的扩张周期）即将结束。中国经济正继续以再平衡的方式平稳减速。Szewczyk指出，亚洲发展中国家仍是高增长地区，但土耳其经济不太可能迅速反弹。

In Germany manufacturing is in recession and the automotive industry has contracted, while the decade-long expansion cycle in the US, the longest since the 1950s, is coming to an end. The Chinese economy is continuing its smooth deceleration with rebalancing. Developing Asia continues to be a high-growth region but aquick Turkish economic rebound is unlikely, Szewczyk noted.

根据世界钢协4月份的最新预测（新数据将于下月发布），2019年全球成品钢材需求增速将放缓至1.3%，2020年将放缓至1%。造成这种情况的主要原因是中国需求减速。预计中国GDP增速将达到1992年以来的最低水平。与美国的贸易关系紧张正在给中国制造业带来压力，同时汽车产量正在萎缩，但房地产行业增长依然强劲。到2020年，如果没有政府的房地产刺激计划，需求将进一步放缓。

According toworld steel’s latest forecast from April – new data is published only next month– global finished steel demand growth will slow to 1.3% in 2019 and 1% in 2020.The main reason for this is the deceleration in Chinese demand. Chinese GDPgrowth is expected to be its lowest since 1992. Trade tensions with the US are pressuring Chinese manufacturing, while auto output is contracting, but real estate growth remains strong. In 2020 demand will slow further with nogovernment real estate stimulus.

尽管2019年印度市场未能兑现大选后的乐观预期，但2020年基础设施和消费将拉动需求，而东盟将继续成为增长亮点。Szewczyk表示：“但这些增长将无法抵消中国经济放缓的影响。”

Despite the Indian market failing to deliver on post-election optimism in 2019,infrastructure and consumption will drive demand in 2020, while ASEAN will continue to be the growth bright spot. “But the growth will not be able to offset the Chinese slowdown,” Szewczyk said.

到2035年，成品钢材需求将低于20亿吨，在此之前年均增幅不到1%。Szewczyk总结道：“可以说，当前全球现有产能足以满足2035年之前的钢铁需求。”

In 2035 finished steel demand will be below 2 billion tonnes, with average annual growth of less than 1% until then. “You may say that, globally, currently installed capacities are sufficient to meet steel demand till 2035,” Szewczyk concluded.